Newcastle United welcome Everton to St James’ Park on the final day of the Premier League campaign this Sunday with Champions League qualification still up in the air.
The permutations are simple for Eddie Howe‘s men, win, and Champions League football will be theirs, but any slip-ups make it difficult to see how the Magpies will get in.
In the tightest race ever for continental football, five teams still have the chance to qualify for the Champions League on the final day, with Manchester City big favourites to make it, while three clubs are level on points.
Newcastle are one of those sides, with Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa waiting to pounce on dropped points from any of the clubs in the hunt for the top five.
A narrow 1-0 defeat at Arsenal last weekend means the hosts will be sweating over their final league position here, in what was just a second defeat in 10 games.
A draw for Newcastle at St James’ this weekend means one of Chelsea or Forest are guaranteed to finish above them, as they play each other, so Howe will be looking for a favour for Manchester United, who would need to stop Villa winning.
Should Everton grab an unlikely victory here though, then Villa would only need a point at Old Trafford to leapfrog the Magpies, illustrating just how delicate the race is for those highly-sought-after places.
Newcastle are heavy favourites to make it in though, with Opta rating their chances at over 80% to finish in the top five, and that is largely thanks to the fact they have won six consecutive Premier League home matches.
The Magpies are also strong finishers, having won a whopping eight of their previous 10 final-day encounters, but the last time they faced the Toffees on the final day, there was heartache.
Newcastle found themselves in a similar, but not as strong, position at the end of the 2011-12 season when travelling to Goodison Park, knowing a win and a Tottenham Hotspur slip up would see them finish in the top four, but they were beaten 3-1 by David Moyes‘s men.
